While you’d hope for it to be the most wonderful time of the year, the festive period can often bring challenging times, too. Whether that’s financial worries, family woes, or something else, Christmas is sadly not always a festive fiesta. That’s especially true where crime is concerned.
Winter brings darker nights and less-than-favourable weather conditions – an ideal cover for criminals and trespassers. Similarly, the infamous Christmas crowds can offer the chance for pickpockets and shoplifters to slip through the net, and impact your profits at a crucial time of the year.
That’s something we’re always aware of here at Churchill Support Services. Over our 28 years at the top of the security industry, we’ve ensured the safety of countless businesses over the festive period, and throughout the year. We’re also well-versed in how crime stacks up across the country, having ranked the most dangerous areas in England and Wales every year.
With our latest article, we’ll uncover the truth about Christmas crime statistics, why they’re a massive concern for businesses from all sectors, and how you can most effectively mitigate those issues.
We’ve taken the latest batch of data available from the Police Data repository (covering all of 2023 and the first Quarter of 2024), alongside independent data aggregators and sources, to ensure that we represent the rates of crime at Christmas fairly and objectively.
We’ll be using data from what’s known as the “golden quarter” for retailers – Q3 (October through to December) – as this gives the most accurate representation of the festive period, including the lead-up to Christmas, and the time when many businesses gear up for what’s set to be one of their busiest seasons of the year.
Let’s break down the key figures you need to know about Christmas crime, as well as what you can do to ensure the continued safety of your business.
Christmas is, without question, an expensive time for many. With presents to consider, lunches to plan, and decorations to decide upon, it’s a month where there’s likely to be significant and often unexpected expenses. That sadly means that many resort to shoplifting, with the last 3 months of the year seeing a disproportionate amount of criminal activity.
The latest police data shows that 107,955 instances of shoplifting took place across England and Wales over the course of Quarter 4 in 2022. That’s a 2.6% increase over Quarter 1 (April to June) and represents a major concern for retail hubs.
On a regional basis, London is the hardest hit by shoplifting over the Christmas period, with the Metropolitan Police reporting 14,656 offences in that time. They’re the unfortunate leaders by some margin, with the West Midlands (6,206 offences) and West Yorkshire (5,418 offences) taking second and third respectively.
While national statistics around shoplifting saw that 2.6% rise over the Christmas period, local authorities saw larger rises. Devon & Cornwall’s seasonal shoplifting saw the most drastic rise, with Q3’s figures over 17.7% higher than the rest of the year. There were equally concerning spikes across North Yorkshire (a 5.1% spike), Northamptonshire (a 3.8% spike) and Cumbria (a 3% spike).
Equally shocking is that the British Transport Police saw a similar spike of 3% over the festive period, which is perhaps indicative of thieves using public transport to make off with stolen goods.
While it’s often seen as the season of giving, Christmas for opportunistic thieves and criminals is also proving to be the season of taking, too. Aggregated data from the UK’s police forces shows a definitive rise in robbery and aggravated robbery from domestic properties over the festive period, with Q3 (17,940 incidents) seeing a sharp increase over the next quarter (Q4, with 17,059 incidents).
Of course, while that’s only a 5.2% increase, it’s likely to reverberate across the country, especially at a time when many of us have gifts under the tree, or expensive presents ready to hand out at family gatherings. That’s arguably the crux of the issue here, and looking at a more localised level only reveals more causes for concern.
London, perhaps unsurprisingly given its popularity and 8.9 million residents, sees the most domestic robberies, with the Metropolitan Police reporting an alarming 8,031 incidents over Q3 – more than 4 times higher than any other area of the UK. The West Midlands takes the second position with 1,907 incidents, alongside Greater Manchester in third with a concerning 922 offences.
That only tells a partial story, however, and some areas see a more protracted rise than others during that golden period. The City of London, while low in population, saw a meteoric spike of 21.9% over the festive period (85 robberies in Q3, compared with the next highest – 78 in Q4). There were also notable rises in Lincolnshire (a 9% spike), Metropolitan London (an 8.8% spike) and Nottinghamshire (a 7.7% spike).
While it’s often confused with robbery, burglary does not involve the use of force for the theft to occur. We’ve already touched on the idea that robbery sees a festive increase, but it’s equally true that burglars view what’s supposed to be the most wonderful time of the year as a window of opportunity.
Christmas often brings with it a sense of showmanship and festive cheer, especially when it comes to lights and decorations. However, for some, this also presents further incentive and opportunity to steal, meaning we see consistently high figures of burglary from domestic properties throughout the holiday season.
The latest data from the UK’s Police repository showed a marked rise of 7.3% during Q3 (48,746 incidents) when compared with the next highest (45,627 incidents in Q4). With many of these devastating offences happening under cover of darkness due to shorter days and longer nights, it’s perhaps no surprise that the winter months see a surge in criminal damages.
London sees the lion’s share of residential burglary across the UK, with the golden quarter witnessing a startling 10,009 incidents. That’s a huge margin above the rest of the country, with the next highest – the West Midlands – seeing a no-less-concerning 4,142 incidents. That’s followed by Greater Manchester (3,529 incidents) and West Yorkshire (2,761 incidents).
A closer inspection reveals more seasonal surges across local authorities, too. The West Midlands saw the largest spike, with Q3 sitting at more than 22.5% higher than the next highest quarter. There are similar but less drastic upswings across Hertfordshire (a 13.6% spike), Greater Manchester (an 11% spike), and Avon & Somerset (a 9.6% spike).
While retailers and the hospitality industry gear up for one of the most hectic times in their calendar, many other businesses are shutting down operations until the start of the new year. Although you’d assume these are polar opposites, they both share the same vulnerability to corporate robbery.
That’s most clearly reflected in the year-high figures we see in Q3, where there were 2,797 instances of robbery from businesses, a rise of more than 14.8% when compared with the previous quarter (Q2, with 2,435 incidents).
The capital London sees the unfortunate majority of these robbery issues, with the Metropolitan Police reporting a shocking 1,224 offences. That’s more than the next three most dangerous regions combined, with the West Midlands (253 offences), Avon & Somerset (199 offences) and Greater Manchester (156 offences) seeing comparatively lower but no less concerning figures.
However, it’s on a local level where we find the major rises during the festive period. The rate of business robbery in North Wales doubles in Quarter 3, going from 4 incidents in both Q2 and Q4 to 8 incidents in Q3. There were equally astronomic increases in Merseyside (where robberies from businesses rose by 89.5% in Q3), Surrey (a 75% rise), and Warwickshire (a 46.2% rise).
While you’d always hope you can trust your colleagues and members of staff, the holidays often present an opportunity for that to change. With stock turnover at an all-time high and a rapid influx of customers and visitors, employee theft can often fly under the radar until it’s too late.
That’s something the latest statistics offer a more concrete confirmation of. The golden quarter saw an alarming 1,630 instances of theft by an employee – a marked 9.5% increase when we compare that to the next highest quarter (Q1, with 1,488 offences).
The bulk of those incidents occurred in the wider London area, which saw 203 instances of employee theft. Greater Manchester (98 offences), the Thames Valley (80 offences) and West Yorkshire (74 offences) all follow closely behind.
Looking more locally, there are more immediate causes for concern around employee theft over the festive period. In Lancashire alone, there was a rise of more than 43.5%, with 66 offences in Q3 (compared with 46 in Q2, the next highest). The county was far from the only one to suffer though, with Northamptonshire (up by 28.2%) and the City of London (up by 22.2%) seeing concerning increases over Christmas.
At a time when many of us are venturing into town to pick up Christmas presents, or visiting relatives for a celebration and a tipple or two, it can be all too tempting to leave any gifts or festive purchases in your car.
That’s further compounded by the fact that company vehicles are included in those statistics, with plant machinery and delivery fleets often left unguarded over the Christmas period. It’s an issue we’ve covered in more depth with our exposé on construction site security over the holiday season, but suffice it to say there’s more to the situation than meets the eye.
Data over the festive period only serves to reinforce that grim picture. The third quarter of the year saw an unprecedented 50,622 instances of theft from vehicles – more than 1,500 more than the next highest quarter (Q2, with 49,058 offences). That’s a rise of around 3.2% and, at a time when sales and relaxation often punctuate our schedules, it’s a definite concern.
It’ll likely come as no surprise that London sees the largest proportion of those offences, with the capital seeing an alarming 15,781 incidents. There’s quite a substantial gulf thereafter, with the next highest (the West Midlands) sitting at 3,346 instances of theft from vehicles – just as large a concern as the capital’s soaring figures when we consider the presence of logistics sites in the area.
There are also mounting concerns around the figures we’ve seen across Greater Manchester (2,789 offences), the Thames Valley area (2,180 offences) and West Yorkshire (2,074 offences) – all major areas for both the transport and distribution sectors and residential popularity. Delving more into local authority data, some areas see a more pronounced seasonal spike than others.
Norfolk earns the unwanted top spot amongst those regions, with theft from vehicles increasing by a worrying 39.3% during the festive period. That’s followed by less drastic but no less concerning seasonal spikes in Durham (up by 20.8%), Hertfordshire (up by 17.8%) and Lancashire (up by 15.9%).
One of the most important parts of the festive season for many is the opportunity to relax. Darker evenings, inclement weather and bitter winds all combine to mean that there are a lot more vehicles on driveways, outside homes, and ultimately not being used. There are also construction projects, office fleets and other vehicles, all stored away somewhere we hope is safe and sound.
While the festive season means many of us are tucked up in bed or enjoying the company of family and friends, criminals view that as an opportunity, and the emerging data only serves as a stark reminder of how that manifests itself.
As we’ve seen throughout this analysis of crime at Christmas, London sees the majority of those stolen vehicles, with 8,417 incidents over Quarter 3 (between October and December). That’s 1.4% higher than the next highest quarter (Q4, with 8,301 incidents) – a small but concerning rise at a time of year when we’re arguably most vulnerable.
London’s issues with vehicle crime are mirrored on a smaller scale across some of the UK’s major travel hubs, too. The West Midlands (3,900 incidents), Greater Manchester (1,703 incidents) and West Yorkshire (1,654 incidents) all saw soaring rates of vehicle theft, and it’s no coincidence that these provide some of the UK’s largest providers of transport, logistics and fleet-based businesses.
They’re not the only areas to experience problems, however, and certain areas across the country see pronounced and worrying increases over the Christmas period. Nottinghamshire sees the most notable rise (up by 5.1% to 539 offences), but there are also concerns about the seasonal spikes in the West Midlands (up by 3.9%), Kent (up by 2.1%), and Hampshire (up by 1.9%).
It’s common knowledge at this point that the UK is going through an economic crisis. Wages aren’t rising in line with the rising cost of housing and groceries, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to afford the same quality of life that many of us enjoyed just a few short years ago.
The emerging data is starting to reflect that, too. We touched on this in our recent piece on the most dangerous areas of London, but there’s been substantial movement in figures and statistics from across England and Wales.
Using the data from the most recent Office of National Statistics release, we find several different indicators of the struggles many face in the wake of a cost of living crisis. Here are just a few of the more standout points from that report, and how they reaffirm the suspicion that crime is set to rise this Christmas.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the nature of the economic crisis we find ourselves grappling with, shoplifting has seen the most substantial increase when we compare it to the figures published in 2022.
Across England and Wales, there’s been a colossal 29.6% rise in shoplifting, rising from 342,428 offences in 2023 to 443,995 offences in 2024. This isn’t split evenly, however. While every region in the UK has witnessed increases in its rate of shoplifting, some areas are more affected than others.
Sussex has seen the largest increase in comparison to its 2023 rate, rising by 51.6% to 17,925 incidents (compared to 11,824 incidents in 2023). There were similar rises across Durham (increased by 46.6% to 7,105 incidents), Derbyshire (increased by 45.5% to 6,857 incidents), and South Wales (increased by 45.5% to 13,372 incidents).
There was also a shock 84.9% increase in the amount of shoplifting reported by the British Transport Police, with 3,568 offences recorded across the UK’s trains, buses and other public transport methods.
Similar to our previous point on shoplifting, theft from the person – which includes snatching of purses and bags, stealth thefts and pickpocketing – has seen a spike in comparison to 2023’s statistics.
Over the whole of England and Wales, the number of instances of theft from the person jumped from 112,225 incidents in 2023 to 131,453 incidents in the most recent batch of data from the ONS – a huge 17.1% increase.
Some areas are more affected than others, however. Dyfed-Powys, for instance, saw a huge increase of 75.9% over 2023’s numbers, rising from 112 offences to 197 in 2024. Equally concerning is the 48% increase we saw in Northumbria (up to 1,218 offences from 823), the 44.5% increase we saw in Devon and Cornwall (up to 915 offences), the 29.9% increase we saw across London (up to 80,939 offences).
Perhaps symptomatic of the rise in robbery, theft and shoplifting, the amount of weapon possession offences has risen dramatically when compared to 2022. This is one of the more concerning increases to be gleaned from the ONS data, especially considering the wider impact that weapon possession can have.
While a rise of 1.2% – from 57,462 offences in 2023 to 58,130 offences in 2025 – may not seem as drastic an upsurge as some of the other stats we’ve seen in this report, it’s the individual regions that offer much grimmer reading.
The City of London had by far the most shocking increase, with 82 weapon possession offences in 2024 – a worrying 43.9% increase over 2023’s statistics. There were also scandalous increases in the amount of weapon possession in Humberside (up 22.1% to 762 offences), Gwent (up 22.1% to 442 offences) and South Wales (up 21.6% to 934 offences).
Our transport network wasn’t immune, either, with the British Transport Police recording 816 incidents of weapon possession over the last year – an increase of 25.2% when we compare that with the previous year.
While the statistics we’ve outlined on crime at Christmas do make for uncomfortable reading, there are measures you can put into place to ensure you stay as safe and secure as possible as the snow starts to fall.
With Churchill, we’ve got the comprehensive expertise and consummate professionalism to ensure you’re fully protected. Whether that’s security guards and CCTV cameras for your retail premises ahead of the festive rush, or a complete alarm response and key holding service while you and your colleagues rest over the holiday season, we can provide complete peace of mind.
Plus, with our 24/7/365 Communications Centre operating throughout the Christmas and New Year period, as well as throughout the year, you’ll always have the support you need on hand.
Get in touch with our in-house experts today to discuss your options this festive season, and to receive your gift-wrapped, no-obligation quote!
